Paths for eight contenders still in hunt for four-team field

With the penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings released Tuesday, it is time to examine the prospects for the teams still in the hunt for the four-team field. This has undoubtedly been the chalkiest season of the CFP era. For the first time ever, the top four teams entering conference championship weekend are all undefeated. That allows for the possibility of the first-ever such playoff field, but it also creates the potential for chaos this weekend because it’s going to be competitive at the top of the rankings.

Eight teams are still in play for the College Football Playoff. The only sure thing is that the Pac-12 champion will make the CFP for the first time since Washington was the No. 4 seed in 2016. It is also exceedingly likely that we will have a playoff with only conference champions for the first time since 2019. Basically, the four unbeaten teams and No. 6 Oregon control their own playoff fate.

Without further ado, here is list of the remaining CFP contenders in order of their current ranking along with an explanation of what each team can accomplish this weekend. Let’s take a look how those teams stack up with Championship Week and the final CFP Rankings ahead.

College Football Playoff paths
1
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Georgia
Win and the Bulldogs are the No. 1 seed as they seek a third straight national title. Lose and things get dicey. Alabama and the three other undefeated teams would be ranked ahead of the Dawgs, at a minimum, so they would need some chaos to get back to No. 4. Texas losing to Oklahoma State, Washington beating Oregon and Florida State falling to Louisville would send the Longhorns, Ducks and Seminoles packing. Michigan and Washington would stand as the lone undefeated teams with Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State as the only other one-loss teams. Georgia would likely be chosen over FSU and Oklahoma State in that scenario. An Oregon win would keep it ahead of Georgia while adding Washington to the list of one-loss teams, but I still like the Dawgs over the Huskies in that case. A Michigan loss would not matter as the Wolverines advance either way in this scenario.
2
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Michigan
If the Wolverines win, they are in as no worse than the No. 2 seed. Should Michigan lose to Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game, it would still finish above Ohio State and any two-loss teams, but nothing else is guaranteed. That’s not the case for Georgia, which would fall behind Alabama should it lose the SEC title game. The best-case scenario for Michigan with a loss is that Alabama, Oregon and either Florida State or Texas lose.
3
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Washington
Win and the Huskies are in as no worse than the No. 3 seed. This may look like an upset if they lose the Pac-12 title game, but the Ducks enter as a 9.5-point favorite. Washington will be behind Oregon, for sure, and obviously any undefeated team with a loss. Its best-case scenario with a loss is for Georgia, Michigan, Louisville and Oklahoma State to win. That eliminates Alabama, Florida State and Texas, leaving Washington to fight with 11-1 Ohio State for No. 4. I believe the Huskies would be chosen.
4
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Florida State
Florida State is in if it wins, out if it loses. It’s as simple as that. The ‘Noles would be the lowest-rated one-loss team, and could conceivably end up behind a two-loss team. That is more because of the quality of their loss and overall schedule — which did not include the next three best teams in the ACC — rather than the loss of star quarterback Jordan Travis.
5
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Oregon
With one loss already, it’s win or go home, but a win should lock up a spot. The committee has been high on the Ducks all season, and it’s hard to imagine a team jumping them even with a better win.
6
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Ohio State
The Buckeyes are in the same position as last season: 11-1 and done playing. The difference this season is they have a lot more competition for a spot in the playoff. At a minimum, Michigan and the Pac-12 champion will finish ahead of Ohio State. It can back in but will need a lot of help, including wins by Georgia and Washington (just to eliminate the Ducks from the discussion) and losses by FSU and Texas. That would leave just three teams ahead of Ohio State: Georgia, Michigan and Washington.
7
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Texas
Like Oregon, it’s win or go home, but Texas still needs help. The Longhorns have the advantage of a head-to-head road win over Alabama, the best win any team has this season. Beating Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game should jump Texas ahead of Ohio State and the loser of the Pac-12 title game. Then, a loss by Georgia, Michigan or Florida State should move Texas to fourth.
8
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Alabama
The Crimson Tide need to win and move up four spots in the rankings. Beating Georgia would take care of three spots. Alabama would go past the Bulldogs, the Pac-12 loser and Ohio State. A loss then by Texas, Florida State or Michigan would be required to get the Tide to No. 4.
Beyond this list of contenders, CBS Sports released my updated bowl projections for the 2023-24 season last Sunday. Reminder: These projections are not how things stand now but rather how I expect them to look following the conference championship games Saturday.